Artrya is on track to join the S&P ASX 300 index when it is rebalanced in September. At current market prices, AYA needs a share price of around $3.05 to be included in the index compared to today's closing price of $6.15 per share, and pricing window volume weighted average price (VWAP) of $5.13.

S&P will announce the results of the rebalance on the 4th September, with the changes taking effect on the 18th September.

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At current levels, a share price of ~$3.05 puts AYA in the 300

To join the index, AYA must have a free-float-adjusted, market capitalisation volume-weighted average across the pricing window above the 274th company on the ASX. Friday was the 31st day into the 80-day recalculation window, which opened on the 21st May and closes on the 21st August. Using today's closing share price of $6.15 (market cap $1.0 billion), positions AYA at approximately 234th on an adjusted basis.

Since the opening of the pricing period, AYA’s VWAP has been $5.13 per share (market cap of $836 million), placing it at around 251st on an adjusted basis (see Figure 1). At this level, unless the rest of the market moves materially upwards, or AYA’s share price drops below $2.00 (assuming trading volumes remain the same across the first 6 weeks of the pricing period), the company is almost assured of being included in the S&P/ASX 300.

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Artrya’s share price remains volatile, and (not surprisingly) we’ve seen an uptick (although not unprecedented) in trading volume since the opening of the pricing period (Figure 2).

Inclusion in ASX 200 still some way off, but the path exists

Inclusion in the S&P ASX 200, requires a company’s float-adjusted market cap to rank it at 179th or higher during the rebalancing period. At current market prices, this requires an adjusted market cap of around $1.5 billion.

For Artrya, (adjusting for the free float S&P applies), this implies a share price of around $11.58. AYA still has 17.6 million unexercised options, all of which are in the money (the highest exercise price is $5.00). 11.5 million of these options expire by the 1st July 2027.

On a partially (exercise of the 11.5 million options that expire by July) and fully diluted basis, ASX 200 inclusion requires AYA’s share price to reach $10.82 and $10.45, respectively. The headline ASX indices are rebalanced twice a year (March and September). Unless Artrya signs a commercialisation agreement with one of its largest SAPPHIRE study partners (that do hundreds of thousands of scans each year), the group’s share price is unlikely to reach this level in March.

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Catalysts exist to see significant price appreciation

The last twelve months have seen Artrya steadily hit meaningful milestones including:

1. Commercial rollout with three foundation partners;
2. Signing of six major and world-leading healthcare systems to its SAPPHIRE study;
3. FDA approval of two of its three current Salix products; and
4. Delivery of its first US revenues.

Along with the FDA clearance of Salix Coronary Flow, which we still expect will be achieved in the fourth quarter of the calendar year, we see several catalysts that could propel AYA towards ASX 200 inclusion by the September 2027 rebalance, namely:

1. Confirmation of scan volume demand of ~15,000 a year from foundation partners;
2. Confirmation of ~US$800 in average revenue per scan; and
3. Delivery of meaningful US revenue;
4. Signing a commercial agreement with at least one SAPPHIRE partner.

Following the signing of commercial agreements with the three US foundation partners (Tanner Health, Cone Health and Northeast Georgia), we see the first three as simply a matter of time. However, our forecasts do not include the commercial revenue from a SAPPHIRE partner until FY28. As such, we see significant upside potential and a resulting positive share price response if this were to happen sooner, potentially even propelling it towards ASX 200 inclusion.

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