Artrya reported its quarterly results, which were broadly in line with expectations. Including the $30 million term deposit, AYA has $76.5 million in cash with a further $5.6 million expected in March from the R&D tax rebate. The biggest news from the release is the delay of Salix Coronary Flow with AYA continuing its “calibration and refinement”. SCF FDA submission is now likely pushed to late 3Q26, with the company not expecting clearance until late June. This is a quarter later than we expected, but has no material impact on our forecasts.

Artrya announced that HCA Midwest Health has agreed to “in-principle participation” in the SAPPHIRE study. HCA Midwest Health is one of 15 divisions of HCA Healthcare, the largest for-profit healthcare system in the US. HCA Midwest Health is a world-renowned cardiovascular research hub, and its participation is hugely positive for SAPPHIRE, Salix and Artrya, providing them not only with credibility but also an entryway to securing HCA as a commercial customer.

First announced in February 2025, the three-phase Salix-based Analysis of Plaque to identify Patients at HIgher Risk of Events (SAPPHIRE) study offers Artrya a huge marketing opoprtunity. It will get Salix in the hands of some of the largest and most prestigious healthcare institutions in the US lifting the platform's visibility and credibility while potentially leading to a change in diagnostic protocols.

Following the events at the end of 2025 (outlined below), we’ve revised our earnings forecasts, resulting in an increase in our valuation to $6.62 per share. Apart from including the dilution impact of the capital raise, this is our first valuation review since August. We expect AYA to be added to the All Ordinaries index at the March rebalance. Following the recent price increase, Artrya’s market capitalisation has exceeded the current level (~$660) required for inclusion in the ASX 300.

Artrya provided an update on its outlook and US strategy at its AGM yesterday. Four hospital groups have joined the SAPPHIRE study, including Ascension Healthcare, the seventh-largest healthcare group in the US. AYA competitor Heartflow and some of its staff are under DOJ investigation for breaches of the federal Anti-Kickback Statute and Civil False Claims Act.

Results in line, several milestones achieved: Artrya’s operating cash flow of -$6 million was slightly more negative than expected due to around $0.8 million in on-offs. Costs are expected to stay at around -$6 million a quarter for the next two quarters as the company works towards the FDA submission for Salix Coronary Flow (SCF) and builds out its US resources. During the quarter, AYA raised $80 million in an oversubscribed placement and share purchase plan.

There appears to be some confusion among Artrya shareholders regarding what they’re voting for in the upcoming General Meeting, scheduled for 24th October. The three resolutions relate to the group’s recent $75 million placement. Artrya completed the initial $60 million placement by utilising the group’s ability to issue shares up to 25% of its existing outstanding shares, without requiring shareholder approval. Only the third Resolution seeks approval to issue the 7.2 million shares of Tranche 2 ($14.7 million).

Artrya opened its share purchase plan (SPP) yesterday, which accompanies the group’s $75 million private placement to sophisticated and institutional investors. The SPP allows existing investors (as of record date 8th September) to purchase up to $30,000 worth of shares at the same issue price as the placement ($2.05). The company reserves the right to accept oversubscriptions or to scale back the offer. Given the group’s shares closed at $2.35 today, we expect strong demand.

Artrya announced on Tuesday that it has secured binding commitments for $75 million in a placement to institutional and sophisticated investors. This is well above the initially announced $60 million target (announced on the 5th September), with reports of demand being several multiples of the final figure.

We update our review of GDP and GDP per capita following Wednesday’s ABS release of the September national accounts. GDP grew by 0.6% in the June quarter, tied for the highest growth rate recorded since December 2022. This growth dragged GDP per capita up, reaching +0.2% for the quarter. This is the second positive GDP per capita result in the last three quarters, but only the third since Jun-22 (see Figure 2).