ASX: “Please explain” – AYA jumps to intraday highof $1.04
The ASX issued Artrya with a “please explain” enquiry yesterday following an intraday price jump to $1.04. AYA shares moved from a $0.70 low on Tuesday before hitting a high of $1.04 just before midday onThursday (see Figure 1) before dropping back down to $0.84 and then closing the day at $0.96.
Positioning ahead of FDA announcement
It’s possible that the spike in trading was a result of aninvestor or investors trying to build a position in the company ahead of the confirmation of FDA approval, which we expected in the first quarter of 2025. Withan estimated 95% of future revenue coming from the US, gaining FDA approval is critical for AYA. As a fairly tightly held micro-cap stock, building a meaningful position is difficult and will likely result in the types of price and volume spikes we’ve seen over the last 10 trading days.
Thursday was the most volatile trading day AYA has seen inthe last three years with close to 800,000 shares traded, compared to the 12-month daily average of 69,600 shares per day. In the previous four trading days, 1.57 million shares have been traded, averaging 393,000 per day, more than 5.6 times the daily average of the last 12 months (see Figure 2).
Share price has doubled since Initiation of Coverage
Artrya’s share price has doubled in the month since Venn Brown initiated coverage ($0.46 on 9th December 2024) and is 4x where the stock opened 2024 ($0.24). During the year AYA traded as low as $0.19. Despite the recent jump, AYA is still trading 60% below Venn Brown’s fair value of $2.35 per share.
Catalysts
As discussed in our initiation of coverage report, we see several catalysts that will progressively see AYA’s share price more accurately reflect the company’s fair value, including FDA clearance (expected 1Q 2025), reporting its first revenues, the launch of US sales activities, further FDA regulatory approvals in 1H26, launch of Salix Coronary Plaque and Salix Coronary Flow and ongoing US customer wins.
About Artrya: The future of cardiac imaging diagnostics
Artrya is the Perth-based developer of Salix, an AI-driven diagnosis imaging solution for coronary artery disease. Salix is an automated workflow and diagnostic solution that integrates with hospitals and clinics existing imaging and patient management systems. Australian clinicians Venn Brown spoke with report that the time Salix saves in analysis and reporting would allow clinics to perform at least 2-4 additional scans a day, equating to $2,600 - $3,500/day of additional revenue. In the US, Salix turns a healthcare provider’s cost centre into a revenue centre, earning them ~US$200-300/scan.
Conservatively, Salix’s existing addressable imaging market is $3 billion in annual revenue. This does not include the 7%+pa growth of CCTA imaging seen across Australia, the US, and most of Europe. CCTA imaging accounts for only around 10-15% of cardiac diagnostic testing, with leading cardiac specialists expecting this share to grow to 80% over the coming years.
Read more in our initiation of coverage report : ‘Salix:The future of cardiac imaging diagnostics’