The market responded negatively to Artrya’s 4Q26 cash flows today, closing down -16%. While there was some frustration in the delay in realising cash from Tanner and the other foundation partners, the response was overblown and represents a buying opportunity.
Today’s frustration stems from the longer-than-expected time to see revenue materialise from AYA’s foundation partners (coupled with further SCF delays). With Tanner going live in April, we and the market expected to see cash in the quarter’s report. Unfortunately, Salix’s near-real-time assessment far outpaces the time traditionally taken for payer pre-authorisation (~24-48hrs). Artrya had to build a system (which it’s patenting) to reduce hospitals’ pre-authorisation times to match Salix’s processing times. The fix is near universal, requiring only minor adjustments for future integrations, meaning this quarter’s delays shouldn’t be extrapolated to future integrations.
Almost entirely lost in yesterday’s announcement and in today’s call were AYA’s positive comments around its pipeline, both from inbound inquiries and commercialisation discussions with SAPPHIRE partners. AYA reported that it expects to sign at least one SAPPHIRE partner to a commercial agreement by the end of the year. We’ve not assumed this in our forecasts and, depending on the size of the partner, would likely need to materially upgrade our forecasts were it to eventuate.
The realisation of cash flows will act as a de-risking event, confirming feedback we’ve had from customers that Salix delivers genuine time, convenience and cost savings. Whilst its delay is frustrating and pushes back and slows our revenue forecasts, it does not change our investment thesis.
Venn Brown has revised our forecasts, slowing volume and revenue growth. We have pushed our 400,000 scan target out two years to 2033 and reaching cash flow positive six months to 1H29. Consequently, we’ve reduced our valuation to $988 million or $6.07 per share (from $6.62). We maintain our buy recommendation. Looking ahead, catalysts include: lodgement of the SCF FDA application, SCF FDA clearance, reporting meaningful US revenues and signing new customers.
Download the report for the complete analysis.